Our mathematical shows Lagos coronavirus cases may rise to 39,000 – Health Commissioner

The Lagos State Commissioner for Health, Prof. Akin Abayomi , has said the state may witness up to 39 , 000 cases of coronavirus .

Abayomi at a briefing on Friday urged people to adhere to the social distancing advice of the state government to check the spread of the disease .

He said , “ Our mathematical modelling shows that the worst – case scenario is that we may see up to 39, 000 cases in Lagos , but if everyone practises good social distancing, the figure will be limited to 13 , 000 .

“ If we add social distancing to active contact tracing , then we will be able to bend the curve further .

The figures may seem alarming at this point , but this is just to emphasise to the Lagos community to follow instructions of the incident commander to make sure that we practice social distancing.

“ Looking at the same timeframe from the introduction of the index case , you can see that Lagos State is not seen anywhere near what Spain , Italy, and Iran are showing .

So , at weeks two and three of our index case , we are flat ; and at week four , we have 37 cases; while at the same fourth week , Italy, Iran , and Spain had more than 20, 000 cases. ”

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